Crypto Briefing 1/14/23 – The Forecast

Crypto Briefing 1/14/23

Crypto Briefing 1/14/23

After nearly three months of consolidation, Bitcoin has entered a full-on breakout. Many investors and firms with short positions have been stopped out of positions, and as a consequence, we have seen a dramatic surge in Bitcoin’s price. Even though many are calling for the start of a bull market, we suspect this correction will be more protracted than people expect. When regulations do come to the crypto industry over the next few months and years, we believe that they will be extremely onerous on U.S-based firms, which could catalyze more selling.

Looking at BTC’s price action, we can see a very decisive spike. 60% to 70% of the time, the height of the initial breakout bars will produce a measured move. In the case of Bitcoin, there is a high probability that we see it reach $21,000 to $23,000 before the trend loses momentum and converts into a channel or a trading range. Often times we see trading ranges spill into one another, and we could see a new level of consolidation at $20,000. The fundamentals in the crypto market right now do not indicate a massive surge upward as interest rates are at the highest they have been in over a decade.

Altcoins such as HBAR have dramatically outperformed BTC. Over the past week, we have seen a 30% increase in Hedera’s price compared to a 15% increase in Bitcoin. In prior cryptocurrency bull runs, we have seen how Ethereum and the altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin. To us, this could be an early indication that HBAR will be a darling of the next crypto surge.

As we start to see more and more web 3.0 projects come online, the number of altcoins that go on massive 10X moves will likely continue to decline. In the 2017/2018 bull run, we saw altcoins go on massive rallies solely based on rumors and promises of future technology.  In 2020, altcoins that had strong underlying technology were the recipients of positive price action, and in the next bull run, we believe that cryptocurrencies that are perceived to have utility will be those that go on meteoric rises. It is due to this suspicion that we continue to accumulate a variety of different altcoins roughly in the top 100, that have a high probability of delivering exceptional returns with time.