Crypto Briefing 5/17/22 - The Forecast

Crypto Briefing 5/17/22

Crypto Briefing 5/17/22

Over the next several months we expect to see a significant rebound in Bitcoin.  However, one last test of the 200-moving day average may be necessary (as customarily occurs in major Bitcoin sell-off’s) before a multi-month, trending move sets in.  Alternatively, the final low may have been reached at $25,400 and Bitcoin could advance straight upwards from here.  We will dial in which path will occur shortly.  We nonetheless have high conviction in a major rally in Bitcoin this year to approach its all-time highs.  The bulk of this move should take place from late summer into the fall.

During the previous 2017-2018 altcoin rally, capital moved from Bitcoin into the altcoin market. In 2022, we expect history to rhyme rather than outright repeat itself. With the threat of stablecoins being sanctioned by government agencies following the collapse of Terra Luna, investors will de-risk from USDC, USDT and DAI.  As a consequence, altcoins will see substantial capital inflows amidst the flight from stablecoins.

The recent crash of the crypto market has led to some of the best buying opportunities in years. Out of all the cryptos affected, coins such as QNT, XLM, HBAR, CSPR and XRP are at stellar entry points.  One of the most attractive aspects about crypto is the risk to reward ratio. While digital assets are one of the most volatile asset classes on the planet, they offer returns unheard of in the stock market.  The most successful crypto investors are not the ones who expect to get rich quickly, but rather those who have a multi-year outlook.  Crypto has become more legitimate in the eyes of the general public, and we expect to see this market swell in size over the next several years. While this growth will mostly be driven by speculation, the projects we have selected are utility and value-driven, and have the ability to withstand the test of time.  We believe the coins in our model altcoin portfolio, or that we may otherwise individually cover in our Crypto Briefings, are comparable to the companies which survived the Dot-com bubble and crash.  Just as Amazon or eBay withstood the cataclysm caused by excessive euphoria in the burgeoning sector of internet stocks in 2001, we feel confidently that the projects in our long term altcoin portfolio will someday become the last-standing titans of the blockchain industry.