Weekly Briefing 11/15/20 – The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 11/15/20

Weekly Briefing 11/15/20

We want to check the pulse of the global economic climate by looking at some important metrics from this past week – especially as lockdowns start to become a factor again and the second wave approaches. The Pfizer vaccine news on Monday triggered a sell-off in tech stocks and prompted a sharp, short covering rally of major indexes as well as individual Covid-sensitive stocks.

Despite the positive development, the current wave of outbreaks still poses huge health and economic risk for the U.S. and Europe alike.  The hardest hit industries will still likely face headwind for several months. The reality of the rapidly rising number of infections triggered a sobering pullback in risk assets in the latter half of the week, with possible legal issues concerning the elections also weighing on sentiment.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), Core CPI and Core PPI all hinted at softening demand in October. However, the NFIB Small Business Index and the IBD/TIPP sentiment number missed expectations as well, with a slew of bearish European indicators weighing on sentiment as well.

While the major indexes are clearly in bullish advances, the mid-week dip might be the start of a shaky period on Wall Street with all eyes on the worrisome Covid numbers. The mid-term outlook is one which troubles Wall Street the most due to its uncertainty regarding Covid cases.  The S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq are all above their 50-day moving averages, and the benchmarks are also well clear of their 200-day moving averages. As measured by the Russell 2000, small-caps hit a new all-time high for the first time in more than two years as projected by The Forecast, and although the index finished the week below its new record high, it is comfortably above both of its moving averages. The Volatility Index (VIX) had another very active week, and even though the “fear gauge” finished above its multi-month low due to Covid-related worries, it closed well below both of its moving averages on Friday, near the 23 level.

Apart from the pandemic, the fate of the delayed stimulus package will likely be at the center of attention next week, as the economic calendar will once again be relatively light on key releases. We expect the prospects of a huge stimulus package from congress to buoy stocks into year end after a few wild swings next week and early December. 

We are expanding our market coverage to include many soft commodities for 2021 to increase profit potential for members. We project many commodity shortages due to extreme weather and supply chain interruptions which will make for some wildly profitable moves in 2021.
The Forecast

Important Disclaimers Regarding Our Services and the Information we Provide:
The Forecast offers information, research, educational content, articles, alerts, bulletins, newsletter items and other conveyances of information that constitute the Services. The Forecast is a publication that is available to the general public via subscriptions. The Forecast provides market commentary, market analysis, and insights, as well as general investment education, and identifies particular trades that it believes will result in gains in value, but it does not provide investment advice, whether customized or otherwise.  The Forecast does not owe a fiduciary duty to you, and is not aware of your financial situation, risk appetite or other investment preferences or parameters. The only information about you that The Forecast is aware of is your name, email address, date of birth and other basic information needed to purchase a subscription.  
The Forecast is a publisher, and as such relies upon the publisher’s exclusion from the definition of investment adviser as provided under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. By using our Services, you acknowledge and agree to the foregoing and that any actions or forbearance from taking action based on the information we provide and the use of our Services is entirely at your own risk, for which The Forecast and its Affiliates shall have no liability. You understand and acknowledge that trading in securities, by its nature, involves risk of significant loss.
The Forecast is not registered as a broker-dealer, investment company or investment advisor with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities authority. We offer access to our Site on a subscription basis only, as described further below.
  • You understand that no Content published on this Site constitutes a recommendation that any particular investment, security, sector, portfolio of securities, tax strategy, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
  • You further understand that no one in the employ of The Forecast is advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy, tax advice or strategy, retirement advice or strategy, or other matter. To the extent any of the Content published on the Site may be deemed to be investment advice, such published information is impersonal, general in nature, and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person or entity.
  • You understand that the views and opinions expressed on the Site are the opinions of our contracted analysts and of our users. The analysts may differ from time to time in their opinions about the same securities.
  • You understand that the owners, officers, directors, contracted analysts and employees of The Forecast have or may have personal positions in the instruments (or similar instruments) mentioned on the Site. They agree contractually not to trade in securities in any way that is inconsistent or advantageous from a timing perspective with regard to their posts on The Forecast, nor to receive compensation from or insider information on companies whose equity or fixed income securities, or company prospects or information, that they discuss on the Site.
  • You understand that the risk of loss in trading securities (including, without limitation, stocks, ETFs, options and index futures) can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You bear responsibility for your own investment research and decisions and as noted above, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment.
  • You understand that markets are fluid, dynamic, nonlinear systems. In order to trade such systems with a good prospect of success, one should endeavor to develop the knowledge and experience necessary to navigate its complexities. Therefore, we strongly suggest that any individual who seeks to trade in these markets takes the time to learn about finance, trading, market behavior, and related topics.  We sometimes provide trade set-ups and alerts on the Site. These are provided for educational and hypothetical purposes only and are not trade recommendations. The prices quoted in the alerts are based on real-time market prices as of the time stated in the alert, and not actual fills by the analyst. Prices can change in real time, and actual trading could affect trading prices. We also sometimes track the performance of these set-ups and alerts. Performance table returns don’t include commission and other execution and trading costs, including taxes, that would be incurred if these were actual portfolios. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.