Weekly Briefing 2/27/22 - The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 2/27/22

Weekly Briefing 2/27/22

Back in September, the White House began considering the addition of Ukraine to NATO, which would open the doors for US nuclear military expansion into one of the largest countries in Eastern Europe. Surely, the White House would be aware that such an act would illicit a strong defensive response from Russia. Moreover, what would the US do if Russia expanded alliances with Cuba and or Venezuela and threatened nuclear proliferation on our door step? The US would likely react in a similar manner President Kennedy did in 1963 with the Bay of Pigs Crisis in Cuba. Putin is by no means a saint, but he has the highest approval rating of any world leader at 71% because he puts the interests of Russia and its people first, unyielding to globalist special interest and agendas like so many other countries. The global interests would like nothing more than to break Russia and Putin into submission and yield  to their agendas. We hear over 30 different countries now echo the same mantra, “Build Back Better.” When one listens to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, US, and most of Europe you will find their verbiage and diction is extremely similar. From September-December, Putin had asked western leaders to negotiate a deal on Ukraine. They refused to come to the table, not honoring the Minsk Accord set forth in 2014 when the new Ukrainian government was formed. As a result, Putin acted aggressively to defend his country’s interests and prevent a NATO country from stockpiling arms on Russia’s border. This action would open the door for the globalists and western countries ultimate goal, to unleash a major financial war on the Russian economy and to break and destroy Putin’s good standing with his populace. These sanctions have just started and will continue for many months, and they will be layered on top of one another smothering the Russian economy. This is the end game for the west and globalist special interests. Time will tell who will win, but expect massive volatility in stocks and many commodities over the next six months. Below is a list of the commodities we expect to experience the most volatility and potential upside:
Natural Gas (Russia supplies 90% of the natural gas to Europe)
Oil
Wheat (35% of the world’s wheat comes from Ukraine)
Palladium 
Cobalt/nikel/zinc
Aluminum 
Uranium 
Cryptocurrencies (Specifically Altcoins)
Expect stocks to have a choppy strong rally into the next FOMC meeting in mid-March, followed by another consolidation period into the opening days of April. Our call for a market bottom was one day early on Wednesday, but the low of January 24th, SPX 4200, was undercut Thursday at 4100. We expect that to hold for the month of March. Time will tell if the consolidation we get into early April 4-7 will be a lower low or higher low, but the drop from mid-March, with exact dates covered in our Nightly Briefings, will be 5-10%. Our system does not trade news headlines but data through AI, sentiment, technicals, and static (fixed cycles), but there is always a headline attached to any move. Expect the narrative of a less aggressive Fed policy due to the global uncertainty of the Ukraine/ Russia invasion to be a reason for the Fed to consider readjusting its aggressive tightening cycle, leading to massive short covering into the next Fed meeting on fear of such action. It began this week and we expect it to continue. The coming week should see choppy price action the first half of the week followed by more strength into the expected mid-month FOMC meeting.