Weekly Briefing 3/20/22 – The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 3/20/22

Weekly Briefing 3/20/22

Since our inception, we have continually referenced a commodity super-cycle which began in 2016 and will last into 2024. Some of the fundamental drivers of this commodity cycle are currency debasement, global debt, money printing, rising interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme cyclical weather patterns. Like many parabolic moves, the largest gains come near the tail-end of these cycles. Our goal at The Forecast is to identify and ride these longer term trends. Trading in and out and attempting to use technical analysis to time the market during such periods can be fruitless. A buy-and-hold approach is our preference.

Here are some ETF’s of significant interest to us at the current time:

GDX: Gold miners

SLV/SILJ: Silver and silver miners

BATT: Rare earth elements

FCX: Copper related miners

URA: Uranium

OIH: Oil and gas service companies

WEAT: Wheat agro fund

BITO: Bitcoin

Market Recap:

Major indexes witnessed a short-covering rally this week as predicted for weeks by The Forecast, and U.S. stocks remained among the strongest assets globally despite the first rate hike by the Fed in over three years. Major indexes gained key ground recovering some important technical levels and the VIX index dropped below 30 this week as optimism in the peace talks took center stage.

 The Philly Fed Index, New Jobless Claims, Building Permits, and Housing Starts came in with bullish numbers, but Retail Sales, Housing Index, and the Manufacturing Index all missed big. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the core PPI both missed expectations, but still point to a more prolonged period of inflationary pressure and a hawkish tone from the FED.

Upcoming economic data this week:

The weekly crude oil inventory report will be due on Wednesday

Manufacturing and Service PMI’s will be out on Thursday

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to take place this week