Weekly Briefing 4/3/22 – The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 4/3/22

Weekly Briefing 4/3/22

Stocks began the week higher but ultimately turned down as the market sold off into the end of the first quarter – a move we had long prepared our Gold Members for.  The Ukraine conflict continues to carry the most influence over the market, and headline risk remains high as any rash development can have a profound effect on stock prices.  Presently, the technical picture remains mixed as the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq closed above their 50-day moving averages, with only the S&P closing above its 200-day moving average.  The VIX also closed at a six-week low on Friday right at its 200-day moving average, suggesting a bounce coming in the days ahead.  Stocks are expected to input a major peak during the month of April and fold members will be apprised of specific dates.  Meanwhile, commodities should continue to perform well throughout 2022, with natural gas, gold, and silver of notable interest.  Our number one commodities choice for 2022 will undoubtedly be silver.  Both gold and gold miners have already had significant moves up one after the other, following their cyclical rotation perfectly.  The next phase in any metals advance is for a powerful rally to be seen in silver.  Not yet having broken its 2011 or 2020 highs like gold, silver will produce a highly explosive move when these levels are finally breached.  Once through $30 futures, silver will reach $50 in short order.  We initially expected this move to occur last year, and unfortunately witnessed record amounts of manipulation as never-before-seen quantities of contracts were sold time and time again at 8:30am to prevent each attempt at a breakout.  However, because of the conflict in the east, manipulation will not be able to contain price for much longer.  By pinning the ruble to the price of gold, a floor has effectively been put in for the precious metals complex at $1940/gold, the present price at which the Bank of Russia will guarantee purchase for.  We subsequently expect $2500/gold and $50/silver to be seen before the year is out.  Due to its greater upside potential, we are more bullish on silver.  Silver also has far greater versatility than gold, with significant industrial use in electric vehicles, computer chips, nanotechnology, robotics, and solar panels.

Economic data this past week:

Consumer Confidence: Beat

JOLTs Job Openings: Beat

Core PCE: Neutral

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Miss

Non-farm Payrolls: Miss

Economic data this coming week:

Tuesday: Market Composite PMI

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims