Weekly Briefing 5/1/22 - The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 5/1/22

Weekly Briefing 5/1/22

This past week in the market was a volatility-packed one for the books, with Microsoft, Apple, and Meta all beating earnings expectations and seeing strong rallies while tech giants Amazon and Google missed and plummeted.  Earnings will continue into next week, with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting also being highly anticipated as investors await Powell’s decision on just how high the Fed will raise rates.  From a technical perspective, the short term picture remains bearish as all three major indexes are below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.  Meanwhile, the VIX continues to rise, holding above the 30 level this past week.  We expect negative trends to resolve shortly – likely on an intraday spike low forming this Wednesday on the FOMC meeting.

In years that have begun as poorly as this one, powerful rallies have ensued almost every time.  We expect much higher prices to be seen in the major indexes over the next several months, with potential for all-time highs to be tested or even exceeded.

Past Week’s Economic Data:

Core Durable Goods: Beat

CB Consumer Confidence: Miss

Q1 GDP (QoQ): Miss

Initial Jobless Claims:  Neutral

Upcoming Economic Data:

Monday:  ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday:  JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday: ISM Services PMI, FOMC Meeting

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday:  Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate