Weekly Briefing 6/12/22 - The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 6/12/22

Weekly Briefing 6/12/22

In light of the substantial panic seen in the broad market over the last three days, we will offer a brief but high level analysis of present market conditions to all of our members.  Our key support level of 3,850 SPX has withstood numerous bouts of selling and should continue to hold for the foreseeable future.  A drastic reversal is possible during tomorrow’s session, but should be seen by no later than Wednesday.  Markets should then rally into July 12-16 where a substantial move will then take place.  Gold members continue to be apprised of the expected direction of this massive move.  Many analysts and traders are still calling for a crash as early as tomorrow.  But our models confidently project a short term bottom to form between tomorrow and Wednesday.  While it can be difficult to control one’s emotions while the market is seemingly in free-fall, our Gold members have been well prepared for this scenario.  We anticipated a period of consolidation into June 10-15 for the past two weeks, and have maintained that 3,850 SPX should hold the broad market.

From a technical perspective, conditions have deteriorated as all major indexes are trading beneath their major moving averages.  Meanwhile, the VIX has spiked back up near the fear-intensive 30-level as the broad market has plummeted over the past few days.  A quick recovery will likely be needed to achieve the rally into mid-July our models portend.

Last Week’s Economic Data:

Initial Jobless Claims:  Miss

Core CPI: Miss

Upcoming Economic Data:

Tuesday:  Monthly PPI (May)

Wednesday:  FOMC Meeting and Interest Rate Decision, Core Retail Sales

Thursday:  Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday:  Fed Chair Powell Speaks