Weekly Briefing 6/5/22 - The Forecast

Weekly Briefing 6/5/22

Weekly Briefing 6/5/22

The rebound our system projected has continued to unfold almost precisely as anticipated.  While the bottom we confidently confirmed for our gold members was briefly broken intraday, SPX 3,850 has continued to support the market on a closing basis.  Our minimum target for this rally is 4,300 SPX.  However, after being struck, one final leg lower is possible to 3,500 SPX.  Alternatively, the bottom may already be in and higher highs will continue to be made.  Our system is honing in the likely path now, and our gold members will receive this information as it develops.

From a technical perspective, the market is showing initial signs of bullishness as the major indexes have each recovered their 10-DMA.  However, each still remains below their 50 and 200-DMA, which will continue to signify this downtrend is still intact.  At any point, a break of the 200-day moving average will signal an end to this downtrend.  Meanwhile, the Vix continues to oscillate in the mid 20’s, and should shortly regress beneath the key 20-level.

Past Week’s Economic Data:

CB Consumer Confidence: Beat

ISM Manufacturing: Beat

JOLTs Job Openings: Neutral

Initial Jobless Claims: Beat

Nonfarm Payrolls: Beat

Unemployment Rate:  Miss

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Miss

Upcoming Economic Data:

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: Core CPI